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Target CEO Brian Cornell Sees an Uncertain Landscape as Tariffs Hit

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Target Corp.’s annual investor day just happened to fall on the first day of President Donald Trump’s latest trade war — putting the discounter on the front lines of the hottest topic in retail.  Trump finally on Tuesday slammed 25 percent tariffs on certain goods from Canada and Mexico and doubled the tariffs on imports from China — carrying through on a threat that was deferred for a month to allow for negotiations — but Target chair and chief executive officer Brian Cornell said the outlook was still uncertain.  “I think it’s still a work in progress,” Cornell told reporters after the investor meeting in Manhattan. “Things are unfolding so quickly. We’ll watch this carefully and understand, ‘Are these long-term tariffs?’ ‘Is this a short-term action?’ ‘How will this unfold over time?’ I think all of us are speculating and I think we’re going to listen and learn and sure that we can control the things we can control. You May Also Like Related Articles Financial Stocks in Red as Investors Assess Tariffs, Global Trade War Government and Trade Trump Drops 25% Duties on Canada and Mexico, Fueling Trade War “We’re all right now in the student mode trying to understand what it means for our business, how we protect the families we serve, how we make sure we can continue to run our business,” he said. “But we don’t want to overreact right now to one day and one headline and we’ll make sure we adjust accordingly.” Trump has used tariffs to pressure other countries, but experts and trade groups have repeatedly stressed that the costs — paid by the often U.S.-based importer — would eventually lead to higher prices, and at a time when inflation is still a concern.  “If there is going to be a 25 percent tariff, that’s likely going to impact consumers,” Cornell said. Already, tariffs and worry about higher costs are starting to hit companies.  Target, which turned in stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter profits, on Tuesday said earnings in the first quarter would see “meaningful” pressure from consumer uncertainty, the impact of cold weather on some categories, including fashion, “tariff uncertainty” and the timing of certain business costs. That underlying tariff uncertainty was reflected on Wall Street, which saw a broad sell off, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.6 percent, or 670.25 points, to 42,520.99.  Among the decliners were VF Corp., down 7.4 percent to $22.57; Gap Inc., 5.9 percent to $20.10; Macy’s Inc., 4.3 percent to $13.41; Levi Strauss & Co., 4.1 percent to $16.54; Ralph Lauren Corp., 3.8 percent to $252.45; Walmart Inc, 3 percent to $94.72, and Target Corp., 2.8 percent to $117.19. Target, Walmart and Amazon are among the top retailers for 2024. AP Images for Target While business groups have been trying to dissuade Trump from using tariffs — at least those against the interests of their members — they have had little success.  When Cornell was asked if he had connected with Trump directly, he said: “I have not had that conversation. We’ve worked very closely with Matt Shay [CEO at the National Retail Federation] and Brian Dodge [president of the Retail Industry Leaders Group] to make sure that collectively our voice is being heard.”  If retailers aren’t heard in the White House, it seems that consumers will see the impact of tariffs in stores, but it’s not clear exactly where in the store.  Rick Gomez, chief commercial officer of Target, said: “We can’t give specifics yet on items right now, and that’s because teams are working through it in real time. And I’ll give you an example of how we’re thinking about this. It’s not just item per item, so we have to think through pricing architecture.” He pointed to the company’s $5 T-shirts as an example.  “We want $5 Ts, so we’re not going to take the price on the T-shirts, but we do know that we have more flexibility when it comes to dresses, so maybe we’ll look at dresses a little bit differently,” Gomez said. “So it’s actually not as simple, it’s just flowing through cost. We have to think about this from a consumer perspective and make sure that our pricing architecture makes sense and puts us in a place where we are competitive and we have affordable options.” The question of tariffs is just one of the X factors facing Target, which saw dramatic growth during the pandemic but has seen the increases stall over the last couple years. Fourth-quarter profits declined 20.2 percent to $1.1 billion, or $2.41 a diluted share. Still, that put earnings per share 16 cents ahead of the $2.25 analysts forecast, according to Yahoo Finance.  Sales for the three months ended Feb. 1 declined 3.1 percent to $30.9 billion, but were up against an extra week in the year-ago quarter.  Comparable sales increased 1.5 percent with gains in both store traffic and online.  The company said comp sales in apparel and hardlines accelerated by nearly 4 percentage points compared with the third quarter, showing some momentum in the categories. That signals that apparel, which comped down less than 1 percent in the third quarter, has returned to growth. For the full year, Target’s sales slipped 0.8 percent to $106.6 billion while comp sales inches up 0.1 percent. Beauty was the standout again with a midsingle-digit comp increase.  Target has sworn off quarterly forecasts, citing seasonal volatility, but said sales for this year will grow by about 1 percent.  Earnings per share are expected to range from $8.80 to $9.80 for the year, a range that includes the $9.27 Wall Street had forecast.  At the investor meeting, Target laid out plans to add more than $15 billion in sales by 2030 with the help of: New partnerships, like the deals with the Authentic Brands Group-owned Champion and the recently revealed Warby Parker shops-in-shop.  More speed and flexibility in apparel, allowing the retailer to quickly add new styles and silhouettes.  Newness in beauty, which is growing through a partnership with Ulta Beauty and saw the introduction of 45 new brands last month.  Target also plans to boost third-party sales on its digital marketplace to $5 billion from $1 billion and double the size of its in-house media company, which drove more than $2 billion in value last year. In addition to navigating a tricky tariff landscape, Target has been trying to sidestep the culture war, backing away from diversity, equity and inclusion earlier this year in favor of belonging initiatives.  While reporters asked Target management repeatedly whether the company had seen any consumer backlash from the pivot, Cornell & Co. stressed the company’s long-term commitment to inclusivity and tried to avoid the question.  Michael Fiddelke, chief operating officer, came closest to an answer when asked about the impact of any economic blackout from consumers, including those directed at Target. “We’re continuing to monitor a lot of different factors and when you step back and look at the scale of our business to tease apart, the impact of any one factor is always a little bit of tricky math,” Fiddelke said. “The factors that are at the very top of the list are some of the ones that we’ve talked about today. It’s the factors the consumer is facing and subcategories like apparel, where we’re rooting for warm weather.”  Target is optimistic that the apparel business will make a turn for the better as winter weather fades.  But while spring will come, it’s not clear tariffs will go, keeping the C-suite at Target — and around retail — on their toes this year.

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